+ 249 -96 5060 624
Sunday, 3rd April 2016
The awaiting second phase of the South-South civil war will officially break out after the formation of the Transitional Government of the National Unity (TGNU) between the government forces and the New South Sudan Revolutionary Forces (NSSRF). The first stage of the South-South armed conflict started on 15th of December 2013 between the two SPLA-factions and was reportedly brought to an end on 26th of August 2015. The Compromise Peace Agreement (CPA) that was signed by the SPLM/SPLA-IO. under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar Teny and the SPLM/SPLA-IG which is headed by Gen. Salfa kiir Mayardit will lead the two armed factions to partially re-unify and integrate their forces. Dr. Machar who was forced to escape to the wilderness on 15th of December 2013 by the SPLA-Dink-extremists was appointed to serve in the position of the First Vice President for period of three years. The SPLM/SPLA-IO. which was founded in the year 2014 will be operating under the tribal political body titled Dinka National Council of Elders (DNCE) because its leader totally failed to eliminate Mayardit and his regime through the barrel of the gun.
The armed forces that will attempt to remove the rebels from South- Sudan are as following;
- The Sudan People ’s Liberation Army (SPLA);
- The Sudan People ’s liberation army- In- Opposition (SPLA-IO);
- The Uganda People ’s Defence Force (UPDF);
- The Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF); and
- Other anti South Sudanese rebels.
- The causes of the 2nd phase of the civil war
The upcoming second stage of the South-South civil war will be caused by bad governance. Gen. Mayardit of the (SPLA) has been running the newly founded nation poorly since his seizure of power in July 2005 up to this date. His political-military leadership was hijacked by little education, wrong advisors, and over consumption of dangerous drugs.
- The advantages of the 2nd phase of the civil war
The second stage of the forthcoming South-South armed conflict will have the following benefits for the citizens of the newly founded country:
- The people who involved in the massacre of the unarmed innocent Nuer civilians in Juba from 15-17th December 2013 will be brought to justice without delay.
- The tribal council called Dinka National Council of Elders (DNCE) will no longer be the ruling body of the whole South Sudan. This lawless council will be replaced with an ethical and non-tribal political council that will work closely with the legitimate governments and Non-governmental Organisations (NGs).
- All the foreign forces that had been fighting alongside with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SPLM/SPLA will automatically leave South Sudan for their country of origin;
- All the political organisations that operate under the name (SPLM) will be forced to rename their organisations to discourage confusions in the upcoming ethical government. The name (SPLM) expired on 9th of July 2011 so there is no point to retain it any further;
- The new nation will attain permanent peace and security. None will be allowed to encourage and promote unlawful activities in the newly created country. The people who will refuse to comply with the rule of law will be prosecuted;
- The oil income and the money donated by the International Community (IC) for the developing of South Sudan will be spent on the construction of the infrastructure in the devastated region and not only on the buying of military hardware from the second and first World nations;
- The self-proclaimed long bearded of man of God (Tik-yual-kuoth) will automatically flee to the one of the neighbouring countries in search of safe haven or be killed by the rebels in his home town which is situated in Warrap State.
- None will endeavour to threaten the minority ethnic communities after the dislodgment of the SPLA-Dinka extremists from South Sudan. The citizens from minority tribes will begin to improve their living standard at home and in Diaspora;
- The tribal lands that were grabbed and sold by the SPLA-Dinka-extermists will be returned to the legitimate owners to build a sustainable community;
- The democratic presidential elections will be held in South Sudan after the disappearance of Mayardit’s lawless regime. Nobody will attempt to grab the presidency through corruptions because the ethical leadership will be installed into South Sudan after the end of the awaiting second phase of the South-South civil war;
- The rights of every citizen, permanent resident and temporary resident will be fully protected. All people will be treated with respect and dignity to achieve sustainable nation;
- The new regime will attract the highly- educated South Sudanese in each governmental department to get the job done in professional manner;
- The important ministerial and the ambassadorial positions will be wisely allocated to the parties. None of the ethnic community will be allowed to take most of the key ministerial and ambassadorial jobs because there will be equality, human rights, equal justice, unity and sustainable governance;
- The environment that was polluted by the SPLM / SPLA-Dinka- extremists will be fully protected by the environmental experts. This demonstrates that the citizens of the young nation will be operating in a safe environment and not in a polluted one.
- The wildlife habitat that was deliberately destroyed by the SPLM /SPLA’s operatives will be rehabilitated by the forthcoming ethical regime. The Department of Wildlife will set up new management strategies to protect the wildlife and also to improve their habitat;
- The religious and the political organisations will be fully funded after the disappearance of the Dinka National Council of Elders (DNCE);
- The venerable population will be fully looked after by the Department of Social Welfare;
- All the treatable diseases will be fully treated and wisely prevented by the medical scientists to advance the standard of living in the newly founded country;
- The awaiting ethical government will create many public farms to combat against poverty at national and International level. All agricultural equipment /materials will be made available by the Department of Agriculture to get the job done in professional manner;
- The village, divisional, district, regional and national boundaries will be demarcated to achieve permanent peace and security;
- The diplomatic relationships between South Sudan and other countries will be advanced and retained by the Department of Foreign Affairs;
- The Ugandan Embassy in South Sudan will be closed down for good until the end of Yoweri Museveni ’s lawless regime;
- Other benefits of the upcoming second stage of the South-South civil war are also available.
- The disadvantages of the 2nd phase of the civil war
The forthcoming second phase of the South-South armed conflict will have the disadvantages:
- The conflict will inevitably escalate into long-lasting regional war. Some of the nations will back up the government forces and some will provide their political support to the New South Sudan Revolutionary Forces (NSSRF);
- South Sudan will completely lose its central government as a result of exchange of heavy artillery fire in the South Sudanese Capital Juba;
- The South Sudanese civilians will flee the country for Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Central African Republic (CAR) and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in search of security;
- The unarmed innocent civilians will be caught in cross fire after the eruption of the conflict because the bullet does distinguish between the civilians and the fighters;
- Too many civilians will be internally displaced following the outbreak of the second phase of the South-South armed conflict. There will be severe thirsty and hunger in most parts of the country. In addition, it will be too difficult to prevent the spread of the treatable diseases such as cholera, typhoid and other dangerous diseases;
- The foreign consulates and embassies will be automatically closed down due to factional and tribal clashes in the country;
- There will be frequent tribal clashes that will be caused by cattle raiding and abduction of children;
- The wetlands and soil will be temporarily polluted as a consequence of exchange of artillery fire between the government forces and the new rebel groups;
- The wildlife habitat will be temporarily destroyed and the fishes will die out as a result of water pollution; and
- Other disadvantages of the second phase of the South-South armed conflict.
The Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union (AU), the Arab League (AL), the Europeans Union (EU) and the NATO countries should advise Gen. Mayardit of the (SPLA) to distance himself from the presidency of South Sudan to prevent the outbreak of the awaiting second phase of the South-South civil war.
The leader of the (SPLA) named Salfa Kiir Mayardit must be forced to leave the country through constant military campaign to achieve long-lasting peace and security in the youngest country. There is no point to delay his removal from power because he totally failed to rule the country ethically. It is now too late for the citizens of newest nation to escape the upcoming South-South armed conflict. The second phase of the South-South civil war will automatically break out following the establishment of the Transitional Government of the National Unity (TGNU).
Commander Yien Lam Tot
The author is an Advocate for Situational leadership theories and he holds Asso. Dip. of Sustain., Asso.Dip. of Admin., Dip. of Bus., Dip. of HR., Dip. of Mgt., and Post Grad. Leadership Degree.
The writer is also the President of the (SSNDP) and Commander-in-Chief of the (SSNDF)
South Sudan, Liberated Area